Mathematical Model

Background: China has the highest prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection worldwide. Universal HBV screening might enable China to reach the WHO 2030 target of 90% diagnostics, 80% treatment, and 65% HBV-related death reduction, and eventually elimination of viral hepatitis. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing universal HBV screening in China and identified optimal screening strategies.
Background: Hepatitis C elimination may be possible with broad uptake of direct-acting antiviral treatments (DAAs). In 2016 the Australian government committed A$1.2 billion for five years of unlimited DAAs (March 2016 to February 2021) in a risk-sharing agreement with pharmaceutical companies. We assess the impact, cost-effectiveness and net economic benefits likely to be realised from this investment.
Activities in the food-energy-water nexus require ecosystem services to maintain productivity and prevent ecological degradation. This work applies techno-ecological synergy concepts in an optimization formulation to design a system for co-producing food and energy under constraints on ecological sustainability. The system includes land use activities and biomass conversion processes for the production of energy carriers, as well as supporting ecosystems that increase the supply of key ecosystem services.
Elsevier, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Volume 133, June 2018
Sustainable use and management of nutrients is an important issue for food, energy and water systems. The close connections between the three systems, reflected by the “nexus” concept, warrant an integrated approach to nutrients management across the nexus. In this paper, dynamic modelling of nutrient flows in a local food-energy-water system is presented and applied to a simplified case study.
Objectives: This paper review trends in emerging infections and the need for increased clinical and laboratory surveillance. Methods: Factors that contributed to the emergence of recent outbreaks have been reviewed. Known, major outbreaks over the past two decades were reviewed. Results: We identified at least four major drivers of emergent infections: (i) increasing density of the human population; (ii) stress from farmland expansion on the environment; (iii) globalization of the food market and manufacturing; (iv) environmental contamination.
Background Sex workers are disproportionately affected by HIV compared with the general population. Most studies of HIV risk among sex workers have focused on individual-level risk factors, with few studies assessing potential structural determinants of HIV risk. In this Article, we examine whether criminal laws around sex work are associated with HIV prevalence among female sex workers.
Background One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050.