Scenario Analysis

Elsevier, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Volume 157, January 2022
Humanitarian aid in disasters is critical to saving lives and alleviating human suffering. This paper presents a novel scenario-based robust bi-objective optimization model that integrates medical facility location, casualty transportation, and relief commodity allocation considering triage. The proposed model aims to minimize the total deprivation cost of casualties due to the delayed access to medical services and the total operation cost.
The multifaceted relationships that exist between communities and the environment in Fiji are increasingly threatened by the cross-temporal impacts of climate change. Recent literature on the relocation of vulnerable communities as a means to avoid slow-onset climate change impacts in Fiji highlights the complexity of these relationships and the range of considerations that must be factored in when assessing relocation options and strategies.
There exist no future projections of fishery conflict that consider wider societal trends. This paper builds four future fishery conflict scenarios by using a multimethod approach. The scenarios take place between 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic, the East China Sea, the coast of West Africa, and the Arctic and explore implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world. They function as accessible communication tools and aim to foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security.
Graphical abstract
A hydro-economic assessment of the headwaters of the Nile River revealed the upstream-downstream linkages and interconnections among socio-economic development, climate change, and the environment.
Climate, land use and land cover (LULC) changes are among the primary driving forces of soil loss. Decoupling their effects can help in understanding the magnitude and trend of soil loss in response to human activities and ecosystem management. Here, the RUSLE model was applied to estimate the spatial-temporal variations of soil loss rate in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area during 2001–2015, followed by a scenario design to decouple the effects of climate and LULC changes. The results showed that increasing rainfall generated as much as 2.90 × 107 t soil loss in the TGR area.
Elsevier, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, Volume 34, January 2019
Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them.