Scenario Planning

As evidence of the health impacts of transportation investments has grown, planners have increasingly used health impact assessments (HIAs) to evaluate transportation plans, projects, and policies. Most HIAs to date, however, have been limited in their ability to quantify health impacts due to a lack of validated methods and tools, scarcity of disaggregate and locally-relevant data, and cost. This paper presents the development and application of a quantitative HIA tool designed to address these and other common limitations of existing HIAs.
This paper uses ‘Medieval’ drought conditions from the 12th Century to simulate the implications of severe and persistent drought for the future of water resource management in metropolitan Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation.