There exist no future projections of fishery conflict that consider wider societal trends. This paper builds four future fishery conflict scenarios by using a multimethod approach. The scenarios take place between 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic, the East China Sea, the coast of West Africa, and the Arctic and explore implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world. They function as accessible communication tools and aim to foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security.
Deterioration of water quality due to economic development, climate change and other factors has become a challenge to human beings and the ecosystem. Most countries have recognized this problem and have resorted to actions for improving water quality. However, the effect on water quality improvements due to these actions is uncertain due to the plausibility of multiple scenarios like climate change scenarios and socio- economic scenarios.
Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them.
This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenarios and normative back-casting with stakeholders from different sectors at the regional level in East Africa.
