Addressing Ethiopia's grand challenge of achieving food security while ensuring land-use sustainability

As one of the most food-insecure countries of the Global South, Ethiopia has experienced significant land-use changes driven by economic development and population growth. To alleviate food insecurity, it is essential to analyze the sustainability of land use from a national perspective. This study examined the dynamic land use transitions in Ethiopia during the period 2000–2020. The socio-economic factors driving land-use transitions and grain demand were identified using Spearman correlation analysis and income-dependent grain demand methods, respectively. Spatio-temporal data fusion analysis methods were used to assess food security status in relation to spatial and temporal shifts in per capita farmland area (PCFA) and per capita farmland production (PCFP). The results showed that the area under cultivation in Ethiopia increased by about 3700 km², mainly due to the conversion of forestland and shrubland. Population growth is the main driver of land use change, and PCFA has continued to decline since 2010, while PCFP showed a declining trend after peaking in 2017. Although the sustained growth in international trade coupled with increased productivity has benefited the country's food supply, the food security situation in low-income countries, including Ethiopia, will remain critical in the context of population growth.