Background: High antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and viral suppression among people with HIV (PWH) in Australia provide a unique context to study individual cognitive trajectories, cognitive aging and factors associated with longitudinal cognitive function during chronic and stable HIV disease. Methods: Participants from the Predictors of Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy study (n = 457, recruited between September 2013 and November 2015, median age = 52 years, and all with HIV RNA <50 copies mL) completed a cognitive assessment with CogState Computerized Battery (CCB) at baseline, Month-12, and Month-24. Demographics, psycho-social and socioeconomic factors, healthcare seeking behaviors, HIV disease characteristics and comorbidities were assessed. The CCB data were corrected for age, sex and practice effect and averaged into a global z-score (GZS). Cognitive impairment was defined with the global deficit score method (GDS>0.5). Meaningful cognitive change was statistically defined (decline or improvement versus stability, i.e., 90% CI, that is p < 0.05, 2-tailed) using a novel evidence-based change score: the linear mixed-effect regression (LMER)-based GZS change score. A separate LMER model with a top-down variable selection approach identified the independent effects of age and other demographic, HIV disease characteristics, socioeconomic and health-related factors on the demographically corrected GZS. The combined definitions of change and cross-sectional impairment enabled the identification of cognitive trajectories. Findings: At Month-12 and Month-24, 6% and 7% showed meaningful cognitive decline and 4% and 3% improved respectively. Only 1% showed sustained decline. Incident impairment due to subtle cognitive decline (i.e., below the threshold of meaningful cognitive decline) was 31% and 25% at Month-12 and Month-24, while 14% showed sustained impairment (i.e., cognitively impaired at all study visits). Older age (≥50 years) and time interaction was associated with lower demographically corrected GZS (β = −0.31, p < 0.001). Having a regular relationship, excellent English proficiency, and perceived stigma (avoidance) were associated with higher GZS (all p < 0.05). Relying on government subsidy, severe depression, and lower belief in ART necessity and higher concerns were associated with lower GZS (all p < 0.05). No HIV disease characteristics had a significant effect. Interpretations: Meaningful cognitive decline was not different from normal expectation in chronic stable HIV disease. Despite this, subtle cognitive decline, sustained cognitive impairment, and greater than normative-age cognitive aging were evident. Funding: Funding for the PAART study was provided in part by unrestricted educational grants from Gilead Sciences (www.gilead.com) (Grant Number: IN-AU-264- 0131), the Balnaves Foundation (www.balnavesfoundation.com), the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (Australia) (www.dhs.vic.gov.au/home), Western Australia Health (www.health.wa.gov.au), the ACT Ministry of Health (Australia) (www.health.act.gov.au), and in-kind support from the Queensland Department of Health (Australia) (www.health.qld.gov.au), and NHMRC Partnership grant APP1058474 (PI: Carr, Andrew).
