Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Middle East and North Africa - Chapter 16: Extreme climate indices over Libya: current and future outlooks

The primary goal of this study is to determine the variation in several extreme climatic indices over Libya based on multiple CMIP5 (i.e., Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models running under various emission scenarios. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme indices was calculated for the near future period 2020-70 and compared to the 1961-90 base period. The results indicate that there is a considerable trend for minimum temperature indices such as the percentage of days when daily minimum and maximum near-surface temperature <10th percentile (TN10p and TX10p, respectively) to reach up to 10% by the end of 2070. At the end of 2070, maximum temperature indices, such as the percentage of days when daily minimum and maximum near-surface temperature >90th percentile (TN90p and TX90p, respectively), showing a 50% increase over the base period. We found a negligible difference in precipitation as compared to the historical reference. Additionally, using CORDEX (i.e., The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) models, extreme temperature indices for four locations have been projected for the near future (2021-55). TX90p and TN90p increased significantly at Sebha, Kufra, Tripoli, and Shahat, while TX10p and TN10p decreased significantly. All stations, except Kufra and Shahat, show a good trend in terms of heat wave frequency and duration. Thus, these findings are critical for Libya’s future growth of community health and energy, as the country must adapt to a variety of possible warming scenarios.