Expected Surgical Risk and the Risk of Stroke and Brain Injury After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Patient-Level Pooled Analysis

Background: The 30-day Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM) has been used to risk-stratify patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Whether surgical mortality risk predicts stroke and neurocognitive outcomes following TAVR is unknown. We evaluated the association between STS-PROM and clinical outcomes, including stroke, acute brain injury on diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI), and cognitive decline in patients undergoing TAVR. Methods: Patient-level data were pooled from 4 prospective trials: (1) DEFLECT III (N = 87), (2) NeuroTAVR (N = 44), (3) REFLECT I (N = 214), and (4) REFLECT II (N = 258). All studies included patients undergoing TAVR with a protocol-mandated predischarge DW-MRI and serial cognitive and neurologic assessments. All patients were evaluated by a board-certified neurologist at baseline, postprocedure, and 30 days. Clinical outcomes, including stroke, cognitive decline (Montreal Cognitive Assessment score), death, myocardial infarction, vascular, and bleeding complications were adjudicated by the same clinical events committee. Imaging analysis was performed by a single core laboratory using identical methods. The DW-MRI measures included total lesion number, individual lesion volume, and total lesion volume. Outcomes were compared between low (STS <4), intermediate (STS 4-8), and high (STS >8) risk groups. Results: In total, 537 of 603 patients with DW-MRI and complete STS assessment undergoing transfemoral TAVR were included in this pooled analysis, of which 253 (47%) were low risk, 198 (37%) intermediate risk, and 86 (16%) high risk patients. At 30 days, high risk patients had higher rates of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, acute kidney injury, bleeding, and vascular complications. Rates of stroke, disabling stroke, DW-MRI measures of brain injury, and cognitive decline were similar across risk categories. Conclusions: This pooled analysis demonstrates that the STS score does not predict stroke, cognitive decline, or acute brain injury after TAVR.