Prospective comparison of risk factors for firearm suicide and non-firearm suicide in a large population-based cohort of current and former US service members: findings from the Millennium Cohort Study

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death among service members and veterans. Among suicide methods, firearms are the most lethal and commonly used method among military populations. Limited research has compared risk factors for the various suicide methods. This study evaluated and compared risk factors for firearm versus non-firearm suicides using data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a large longitudinal military cohort. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we identified factors associated with each suicide method. Risk factors included demographics, mental health diagnoses, mental health symptoms, military-specific characteristics, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Cause of death was assessed from July 1, 2001, through December 31, 2018. Findings: Among 201,565 eligible participants with a mean [SD] age of 29.0 [58.1] years, there were 139,789 (69.3%) male, 61,776 (30.7%) female, 15,927 (7.9%) Hispanic, 24,667 (12.3%) non-Hispanic Black, 14,138 (7.0%) Asian, Pacific Islander, American Indian or Multiracial, and 146,736 (72.8%) non-Hispanic White participants. During the study period, 330 died by firearm suicide and 168 died by non-firearm suicide. Overall, effect estimates for risk factors were similar across both methods of suicide. After adjustment, men (HR: 3.69, 95% CI: 2.59, 5.24) and those who screened positive for depression (HR: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.36, 2.87) had an elevated risk for firearm suicide. In contrast, those who self-reported a history of bipolar diagnosis (HR: 3.40, 95% CI: 1.76, 6.55) had significantly increased risk for non-firearm suicide. Interpretation: Findings suggest that prevention and intervention strategies overall may not need to be differentiated by specific demographic, military, or health factors. Targeted interventions that consider sex and mental health screens might have relative utility in preventing firearm related suicide risk compared with non-firearm suicide. Funding: Military Operational Medicine Research Program, Defense Health Program, and Department of Veterans Affairs.