The European Carbon Market: The impact of higher carbon prices on utilities and industries

ICIS, July 2019
Philipp Ruf and Matteo Mazzoni

The EU committed to reduce emissions by 40% in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, currently discussing an increase to that target. The European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is Europe's flagship policy instrument to reduce emissions with a market-based solution. As the European carbon market has experienced double-digit prices for the first time since 2011, this Market Insight explores whether the increasing carbon prices have been high enough to reduce emissions in 2018 compared with 2017 levels. Furthermore, starting from 2018 developments, the Insight outlines the likely developments of carbon prices in the next five years, presenting the ICIS long-term forecast for European carbon prices and the effects these developments would have on the compliance sectors. In detail, the paper speaks about the effect on power markets in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and Poland.