Background: National and global recommendations for BMI cutoffs to trigger action to prevent obesity-related complications like type 2 diabetes among non-White populations are questionable. We aimed to prospectively identify ethnicity-specific BMI cutoffs for obesity based on the risk of type 2 diabetes that are risk-equivalent to the BMI cutoff for obesity among White populations (≥30 kg/m2). Methods: In this population-based cohort study, we used electronic health records across primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) linked to secondary care records (Hospital Episodes Statistics) from a network of general practitioner practices in England. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older, without any past or current diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, had a BMI of 15·0–50·0 kg/m2 and complete ethnicity data, were registered with a general practitioner practice in England at any point between Sept 1, 1990, and Dec 1, 2018, and had at least 1 year of follow-up data. Patients with type 2 diabetes were identified by use of a CALIBER phenotyping algorithm. Self-reported ethnicity was collapsed into five main categories. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted negative binomial regression models, with fractional polynomials for BMI, were fitted with incident type 2 diabetes and ethnicity data. Findings: 1 472 819 people were included in our study, of whom 1 333 816 (90·6%) were White, 75 956 (5·2%) were south Asian, 49 349 (3·4%) were Black, 10 934 (0·7%) were Chinese, and 2764 (0·2%) were Arab. After a median follow-up of 6·5 years (IQR 3·2–11·2), 97 823 (6·6%) of 1 472 819 individuals were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. For the equivalent age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of type 2 diabetes at a BMI of 30·0 kg/m2 in White populations, the BMI cutoffs were 23·9 kg/m2 (95% CI 23·6–24·0) in south Asian populations, 28·1 kg/m2 (28·0–28·4) in Black populations, 26·9 kg/m2 (26·7–27·2) in Chinese populations, and 26·6 kg/m2 (26·5–27·0) in Arab populations. Interpretation: Revisions of ethnicity-specific BMI cutoffs are needed to ensure that minority ethnic populations are provided with appropriate clinical surveillance to optimise the prevention, early diagnosis, and timely management of type 2 diabetes. Funding: National Institute for Health Research.
The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Volume 9, July 2021,