Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios

Elsevier, One Earth, Volume 4, 19 March 2021
Spijkers J., Merrie A., Wabnitz C.C.C., Osborne M., Mobjork M., Bodin O. et al.

There exist no future projections of fishery conflict that consider wider societal trends. This paper builds four future fishery conflict scenarios by using a multimethod approach. The scenarios take place between 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic, the East China Sea, the coast of West Africa, and the Arctic and explore implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world. They function as accessible communication tools and aim to foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security.